The London Tube network saw a 6.4% drop in passenger numbers in August, representing 200,000 fewer commuter trips daily – amounting to a big drop in revenue for Transport for London (TfL). Against this background, there is a certain sense of inevitability about what area will be targeted to try and make up the shortfall – passengers’ pockets.

Whatever the exact figure, passengers will be facing inflation-busting increases on tube and bus fares for the next two years, most likely around 6%, similar to the rise at the start of 2009.

The drop in commuter numbers, which in August was the biggest monthly fall for 20 years, is blamed on the recession and job cuts. Journeys to central London and the city’s financial district have been the most affected, with the stations around Canary Wharf and the Sqare Mile experiencing the greatest reduction in volume.

The loss in revenue from this decline will sharply impact TfL’s already very tight budget, issues which Mayor Boris Johnson will have to confront when setting fares for next year. Last January he brought in fare increases of an average 6%, and it is generally thought that he will do the same again this January – in blatant contradiction to his pledge to cut fares in line with lower high-street prices.

Indeed, he looks set to trash the TfL policy of calculating fares at 1% above the retail prices index (RPI) for July, which stood at minus 1.4% this year and therefore would call for a cut in fares.

Commenting on this, the Lib-Dem transport spokeswoman Caroline Pidgeon said, “The Mayor cannot pick and choose when he decides to follow the long-standing formula for setting fares. He must keep to his side of the bargain and at least freeze fares for 2010. At a time when many Londoners are facing difficult economic times it would be unforgivable for the Mayor to break from the formula and push fares up next year.”

Talking to BBC London, the mayor said there were “some very tough choices that we’re going to have to make if we want to keep up the investment that we need to make in vital infrastructure for London” – and those “tough choices” are certain to mean unpopular fare increases (though he declined to answer a question about how much such increases would be).

The mayor blames his predecessor, Ken Livingstone, for the current “massive black hole” in TfL’s budget, saying that Livingstone deliberately kept down fares for political advantage and deprived TfL of the funding it needed, resulting in the budgetary crisis it faces today.

But hardpressed passengers on London’s already very expensive travel network are less interested in the blame game between politicians than in finding out just how much more they’ll have to pay for their tube and bus journeys in the new year.

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